In June and July this year, due to many factors, the actual monthly production of silicon materials in China was around 60,000 tons. After August, the effective supply of silicon materials began to be released, and the monthly output gradually increased to about 80,000 tons. It is believed that the monthly output will reach about 100,000 tons by the end of this year. Next year, the production capacity of silicon material will usher in a substantial increase. Many people in the photovoltaic industry predicted that the effective supply of silicon materials is expected to accelerate the release in the future, the contradiction between supply and demand will gradually ease, and the photovoltaic industry will usher in a broader space for development.
This year, China's annual PV installations are likely to exceed 90GW. Photovoltaic investment also continues to be hot. The expansion of downstream investment has resulted in strong demand for upstream silicon materials. In the past two years, although silicon materials have gradually expanded and increased production, they still cannot keep up with the development speed of photovoltaic downstream. The data shows that since the beginning of 2020, the price of silicon material has risen rapidly, from about 9.706 USD /kg to about 41.599/kg in the third quarter of 2022.
However, this situation is gradually ushering in changes. According to statistics, the domestic production of silicon material in September was about 76,200 tons, an increase of nearly 23% month-on-month. In 2022, the production capacity of each link of the photovoltaic industry chain will maintain a rapid expansion trend, and the significant increase in the effective supply of silicon materials will start in the middle and late third quarter, and will be concentrated in the fourth quarter.
According to statistics, in 2021, the domestic silicon material production capacity will total 519,000 tons, and the actual output will be 498,000 tons. It is predicted that by the end of 2022, the domestic silicon material production capacity will reach 1.203 million tons, with an increase of 684,000 tons throughout the year. Recently, the prices of some products in the domestic photovoltaic industry have continued to rise sharply, causing severe shocks in the industrial chain and supply chain. However, the long-term agreement of photovoltaic modules has begun to reduce prices, which shows that the photovoltaic industry chain has formed a consensus on the price trend of the upstream and midstream.